
Early voting begins on February 14th and concludes on February 25th. Primary election day, seemingly early this year is on March 1st. With an unprecedented number of primary and open seat elections, there apparently is something for everyone. What this large number of races does is to ensure a significant number of new members destined for the House and Senate for the 2023 legislative session.
Potentially as many as 40 new House members and 5 new senators. Possibly more when you include contested general election races. With all the statewide offices also on the ballot and an ever more unpredictable electorate, forecasting what will happen has become a much larger cottage industry. The accuracy of these predictions remains to be seen.
The single most important factor in all of this chaos is you the voter and your responsibility to go and vote. Changes in the “absentee” voting process make this option a bit more challenging so if this is your usual voting method, begin early.
What does the upcoming legislative session have in store for employers and businesses in Texas? There are as many predictions as there are predictors. There are 3 items that are for certain:
- Substantial number of new decision makers
- Influx of a significant amount of new federal money funneled into the system
- Significant amount of new state tax money pumped into the system
All of this new money, a larger influx of “new” funds than I have seen in my lifetime around state government (39 years) will impact our state, for good and bad, for years to come.
The Federal Government has injected significant amounts directly, $194 Billion sent to the State of Texas directly or sent to individuals and families with that total expected to reach $246 Billion when all is said and done.
In turn, much of the Federal money has been spent within our local communities. These expenditures have helped drive our various state tax revenues significantly higher.
As a percentage change current vs. last year, total tax collections are up 30%. Of that total, Sales Tax (typically our largest source of state revenue) is up 23.31% vs last year, Motor Vehicle Sales and Rental Tax is up 20.66 % and Alcohol Beverage Taxes up 49.13% as examples.
What does all this money mean? It means that everyone will want to spend it. Pet projects, new projects, old forgotten projects, new programs, failed programs, bad programs, etc. EVERYONE will have their hand out including the elected officials seeking something specific for their districts. Legislative sessions are always easier when there is NO money, decision makers can tell everyone NO. Not this session…
The one caveat that everyone must remember is that this particular gravy train will come to an end. The federal government, more than likely will not be sending large amounts of cash our way in the future. Our various sources of state income will not maintain this increased level and everything should at some point in the not-too-distant future return to normal (whatever that looks like).
This unique situation does offer the prudent the opportunity to make one-time long-term investments. Infrastructure, roads, water, rural health care, electric grid, rural broadband, education etc. Also, opportunities to make long needed investments in our state and teacher retirement systems.
When candidates come knocking, these are the questions that you need to ask. How will they utilize this situation to the betterment of the people they represent and Texas as a whole? What will they do in this real-life unique circumstance and how will they work with the other elected officials to achieve what is best for our state?
These are not the easy “hot button” questions, but these are the questions and the ultimate answers that will impact us all.
Oh, and one more thing…
If Russia invades Ukraine all bets are off.
JKF